Logit Regression Results
| Dep. Variable: |
default |
No. Observations: |
6623 |
| Model: |
Logit |
Df Residuals: |
6592 |
| Method: |
MLE |
Df Model: |
30 |
| Date: |
Mon, 14 Feb 2022 |
Pseudo R-squ.: |
0.7014 |
| Time: |
13:44:59 |
Log-Likelihood: |
-246.83 |
| converged: |
False |
LL-Null: |
-826.49 |
| Covariance Type: |
nonrobust |
LLR p-value: |
1.021e-224 |
|
coef |
std err |
z |
P>|z| |
[0.025 |
0.975] |
| const |
-7.3147 |
2.666 |
-2.744 |
0.006 |
-12.540 |
-2.089 |
| 最新评级_AA |
-0.1559 |
0.710 |
-0.219 |
0.826 |
-1.548 |
1.237 |
| 最新评级_B |
3.1253 |
0.347 |
8.998 |
0.000 |
2.445 |
3.806 |
| 最新评级_C |
6.7123 |
0.430 |
15.622 |
0.000 |
5.870 |
7.554 |
| 企业性质_国有企业 |
-3.4180 |
0.733 |
-4.660 |
0.000 |
-4.856 |
-1.980 |
| 企业性质_外资企业 |
-2.9746 |
0.937 |
-3.175 |
0.001 |
-4.811 |
-1.138 |
| 企业性质_民营企业 |
-1.7211 |
0.706 |
-2.439 |
0.015 |
-3.104 |
-0.338 |
| 企业性质_集体企业 |
-2.8521 |
1.117 |
-2.554 |
0.011 |
-5.041 |
-0.663 |
| 是否上市_是 |
-0.5207 |
0.387 |
-1.346 |
0.178 |
-1.279 |
0.238 |
| 最新发债日_2014 |
0.0876 |
0.806 |
0.109 |
0.913 |
-1.493 |
1.668 |
| 最新发债日_2015 |
0.7734 |
0.808 |
0.957 |
0.338 |
-0.810 |
2.357 |
| 最新发债日_2016 |
2.3629 |
0.945 |
2.502 |
0.012 |
0.512 |
4.214 |
| 最新发债日_2017 |
2.1768 |
0.891 |
2.443 |
0.015 |
0.431 |
3.923 |
| 最新发债日_2018 |
2.3469 |
0.726 |
3.233 |
0.001 |
0.924 |
3.770 |
| 最新发债日_2019 |
2.4301 |
0.928 |
2.618 |
0.009 |
0.610 |
4.250 |
| 最新发债日_2020 |
2.5645 |
1.091 |
2.351 |
0.019 |
0.427 |
4.702 |
| 最新发债日_2021 |
0.1101 |
1.247 |
0.088 |
0.930 |
-2.335 |
2.555 |
| 最新发债日_2022 |
-15.2080 |
2480.879 |
-0.006 |
0.995 |
-4877.642 |
4847.226 |
| 政府支出/GDP |
2.0418 |
4.677 |
0.437 |
0.662 |
-7.124 |
11.208 |
| SHIBOR |
0.5866 |
0.400 |
1.465 |
0.143 |
-0.198 |
1.371 |
| 波动率 |
0.0671 |
0.033 |
2.002 |
0.045 |
0.001 |
0.133 |
| 流动性 |
-1.482e-10 |
1.58e-10 |
-0.938 |
0.348 |
-4.58e-10 |
1.61e-10 |
| 房地产政策 |
2.9309 |
0.977 |
3.000 |
0.003 |
1.016 |
4.845 |
| 持有基金占比 |
-0.1531 |
0.135 |
-1.131 |
0.258 |
-0.418 |
0.112 |
| 大股东持股比例 |
-0.0036 |
0.005 |
-0.671 |
0.503 |
-0.014 |
0.007 |
| 主营业务收入(万元) |
5.105e-08 |
2.66e-08 |
1.918 |
0.055 |
-1.12e-09 |
1.03e-07 |
| 应付账款 |
-3.556e-12 |
6.32e-12 |
-0.563 |
0.574 |
-1.59e-11 |
8.83e-12 |
| 标准券 |
-1.0401 |
1.294 |
-0.804 |
0.422 |
-3.577 |
1.496 |
| 净资产(万元) |
-4.853e-08 |
5.58e-08 |
-0.871 |
0.384 |
-1.58e-07 |
6.07e-08 |
| 现金短债比 |
-0.4579 |
0.406 |
-1.129 |
0.259 |
-1.253 |
0.337 |
| Z |
-0.0895 |
0.045 |
-2.001 |
0.045 |
-0.177 |
-0.002 |
Possibly complete quasi-separation: A fraction 0.12 of observations can be
perfectly predicted.
This might indicate that there is complete
quasi-separation. In this case some parameters will not be identified.